Abstract.
The aim of
this test is to ascertain whether psychic Barry Phillips has the ability to
provide readings which can be identified by anonymous “sitters” as a
description of their personality or life. Barry has decided that to provide
these readings he will utilise the tarot cards. The testing method used to
assess this needed to be such that the usual proposed rational methods of
psychic’s producing readings that sitters find accurate, such as cold and hot
reading are minimised as much as possible. The test was to be conducted solely
via social media.
Hypothesis to Be Tested.
Alternative
hypothesis: H1: Subject
has abilities which enable him to provide accurate descriptions of sitter’s
personality and personal circumstances. This ability can function through mere
selection of tarot cards without any other interaction with a sitter. Sitters
will therefore select their reading from a choice of five with a frequency
greater than chance alone.
Null
hypothesis: H0: Subject’s
ability to provide accurate readings is related to well understood methods
which are naturalistic in origin, such as cold and hot reading. This would be
evidenced by sitters selecting readings with an accuracy roughly equivalent to
chance alone.
Method
Method
The aim of
the test was to minimise the methods used by psychics to provide readings that
seem accurate to sitters. One of the foremost considerations in this was to
minimise the opportunity for the psychic to “cold read” the sitter. This was achieved by ensuring that Barry had
no contact with the cohorts, volunteers were selected via private message which
Barry was not privy to. Cohorts were instructed not to inform any other parties
of their participation in the test. The subject was provided with no personal
details of the cohorts.
To restrict their opportunity to “hot read” sitters an early request to provide sitters names and dates of birth was rejected. The only information that was knowingly passed to the subject by the experimenters was the sitter’s card selections.
As a measure against the opportunity for collusion between psychic and sitter, the ten sitters were selected from a larger group of fifty cohorts. Sitters and cohorts alike were not informed if they had progressed past the initial stage of the test. To this end all cohorts chose cards and received the readings relevant to the sub-groups to which they were assigned. This was not a fool proof measure. A level of collusion was still possible.
To prevent cohorts with knowledge or experience with tarot cards making educated guesses as to which card they had selected, each card was assigned a random number and was to be selected via this number. Barry was instructed not to make any mention of the numbers selected in readings, thus preventing sitters from being easily able to select their read based on this. Barry forwarded two pictures of the cards to be used. One face up, which was not shared to cohorts.
To restrict their opportunity to “hot read” sitters an early request to provide sitters names and dates of birth was rejected. The only information that was knowingly passed to the subject by the experimenters was the sitter’s card selections.
As a measure against the opportunity for collusion between psychic and sitter, the ten sitters were selected from a larger group of fifty cohorts. Sitters and cohorts alike were not informed if they had progressed past the initial stage of the test. To this end all cohorts chose cards and received the readings relevant to the sub-groups to which they were assigned. This was not a fool proof measure. A level of collusion was still possible.
To prevent cohorts with knowledge or experience with tarot cards making educated guesses as to which card they had selected, each card was assigned a random number and was to be selected via this number. Barry was instructed not to make any mention of the numbers selected in readings, thus preventing sitters from being easily able to select their read based on this. Barry forwarded two pictures of the cards to be used. One face up, which was not shared to cohorts.
Figure 1
Cards as sent by Barry Phillips face up.
And a photo of the cards face down. Unfortunately this was
numbered in advance by Barry. It was therefore necessary to obscure these
numbers before a new random number was assigned to each card. This was done by
using an online random number generator at Random.org.
Figure 2:
Cards as sent By Barry Phillips face down
Table 1: Key to card numbers and newly assigned random
numbers.
Original Number
|
random number
|
Original Number
|
random number
|
Original Number
|
random number
|
Original Number
|
random number
|
1
|
70
|
22
|
34
|
43
|
40
|
64
|
61
|
2
|
17
|
23
|
55
|
44
|
16
|
65
|
54
|
3
|
69
|
24
|
7
|
45
|
60
|
66
|
38
|
4
|
36
|
25
|
63
|
46
|
6
|
67
|
71
|
5
|
58
|
26
|
26
|
47
|
19
|
68
|
57
|
6
|
10
|
27
|
25
|
48
|
21
|
69
|
47
|
7
|
44
|
28
|
28
|
49
|
32
|
70
|
24
|
8
|
12
|
29
|
22
|
50
|
9
|
71
|
49
|
9
|
51
|
30
|
33
|
51
|
59
|
72
|
62
|
10
|
75
|
31
|
31
|
52
|
53
|
73
|
13
|
11
|
14
|
32
|
64
|
53
|
78
|
74
|
52
|
12
|
18
|
33
|
74
|
54
|
46
|
75
|
65
|
13
|
3
|
34
|
42
|
55
|
73
|
76
|
5
|
14
|
37
|
35
|
50
|
56
|
11
|
77
|
23
|
15
|
29
|
36
|
15
|
57
|
67
|
78
|
77
|
16
|
27
|
37
|
45
|
58
|
2
|
||
17
|
76
|
38
|
1
|
59
|
39
|
||
18
|
72
|
39
|
68
|
60
|
35
|
||
19
|
20
|
40
|
43
|
61
|
48
|
||
20
|
8
|
41
|
66
|
62
|
41
|
||
21
|
56
|
42
|
4
|
63
|
30
|
Figure 3: Random numbers
assigned to tarot cards: This was the version sent to cohorts.
This image was then
circulated to all 50 cohorts. They were instructed to select two cards from the
range which was then to be passed back to the experimenters. Cohorts were
instructed not to inform any third party of their selection.
What follows is a table of all the cohorts taking part in
the test and their responses.
|
*Due to a no response in both group X and Y it was necessary
to pick two replacement sitters. This was done by simply selecting the sixth
number from the respective random number sequences.
Table 2 Key.
Assigned number: Given on the basis of order upon which request
to partake was received.
Sex: Male (1) female (2) used only for the purpose of
analysis of whether a particular gender gravitated to a particular reading.
Number within sub-group: Randomly assigned number followed
by letter indicates position within one of two sub-groups (x and Y).
Sitter: Letter indicates cohort was selected to be sitter.
Letter indicating position at which number was selected by random number
generator (i.e. if 43 was drawn first, cohort 43 becomes sitter A)
Match: success (1) Failure (0)
Cohorts were then
sorted into two groups, using a sequence generated by aforementioned random
number generator. First 25 cohorts became group X, with a new number based on
the order their initial number was selected. The second 25 group Y. The cohorts received back only the readings
for the five selected “sitters” in their group.
For example cohort 1X received only readings A, B, C, D and E.
For example cohort 1X received only readings A, B, C, D and E.
From the 25 cohorts
in each group five were selected at random to become “sitters”. These sitter’s card
selections were forwarded to Barry to receive readings.
These sitters were assigned a letter:
These sitters were assigned a letter:
A, B, C, D and E
being the sitters from group X, sitters from group Y being assigned F, G, H, I
and J
Selecting sitters from group X
Therefore the sitters
selected are 1X, 9X, 25X, 2X and 13X
Table 3: Sitters for
Group X
Sitter
|
Name
|
Cards selected
|
Reading chosen
|
A
|
Carolyn Dougherty
|
78 & 18
|
D No match
|
B
|
Dan Towey
|
58 & 62
|
D No match
|
C
|
Jeffery Allen Burton
|
76 & 1
|
A No
match
|
D
|
Tim Vickers
|
9 & 3
|
B No match
|
E
|
Paula Taylor
|
No response
|
-
|
E replacement
|
Mika Lewis
|
13 & 34
|
A No Match
|
Selecting sitters from group Y.
Therefore the
selected sitters are 2Y, 18Y, 12Y, 20Y and 21Y.
Table 4: Sitters for
Group Y
Sitter
|
Name
|
Cards selected
|
Reading chosen
|
F
|
Helen Dashwood
|
No response
|
-
|
F replacement.
|
David Burns Keane
|
6 & 44
|
G No Match
|
G
|
Bel C. Ache
|
45 & 63
|
I No Match
|
H
|
Claire Rooney
|
4 & 63
|
F (No Match)
|
I
|
Kathy Stoops
|
25 & 1
|
F No Match
|
J
|
Caroline Cornwall
|
28 & 43
|
F No Match
|
The reasoning for
splitting the cohorts into two subgroups was the concern that many of the
cohorts may have found digesting and selecting from ten readings somewhat
daunting. A non-response a stage 2 would have been disastrous to the test, so
any measure that reduced this risk was worthwhile. Also this method provides to
separate tests to be considered. The measure also may collusion somewhat more
difficult.
As you will see the
above tables record two “no responses” these were fortunately at stage 1,
therefore a replacement sitter could be selected to go forward to the next
stage based simply upon the next number in the random number sequence generated
for each sub-group.
READINGS FOR GROUP X
(A-E)
READING A.
READING A.
"Sitter A - card 1) 5 of pentacles. Card 2) 7 of swords.
We have a gentleman who feels as though he is letting his family down financially. He is also working hard at keeping his family together. He is inwardly hurting emotionally but his partner can't seem to see it and if she can she chooses not to believe it. This gentleman cannot carry this financial and emotional burden on his own, he needs to talk to someone about it but he cannot show his weakness. He is very traditional in his beliefs and likes to think he could run a home and family on what he earned now everything has gone pear shaped and now he is working himself up to a nervous breakdown which can be avoided if he could bring himself to seek help. What has brought this about is a redundancy or sudden loss of his job due to an illness or injury. He also feels like his whole life is slipping away from him and he has no control over it. This leads to sudden outbursts. This also compounds his emotional frame of mind. He is also close to losing his partner because of this build up of instability in his life. However by July or August time, I feel as though things will turn around for him if he can just ride out this storm. The family need to cut back on treats and luxuries because overall the gentleman is living beyond his means."
We have a gentleman who feels as though he is letting his family down financially. He is also working hard at keeping his family together. He is inwardly hurting emotionally but his partner can't seem to see it and if she can she chooses not to believe it. This gentleman cannot carry this financial and emotional burden on his own, he needs to talk to someone about it but he cannot show his weakness. He is very traditional in his beliefs and likes to think he could run a home and family on what he earned now everything has gone pear shaped and now he is working himself up to a nervous breakdown which can be avoided if he could bring himself to seek help. What has brought this about is a redundancy or sudden loss of his job due to an illness or injury. He also feels like his whole life is slipping away from him and he has no control over it. This leads to sudden outbursts. This also compounds his emotional frame of mind. He is also close to losing his partner because of this build up of instability in his life. However by July or August time, I feel as though things will turn around for him if he can just ride out this storm. The family need to cut back on treats and luxuries because overall the gentleman is living beyond his means."
READING B
"Sitter B - card 1) 10 of cauldrons. Card 2) 7 of pentacles
Here we have a family that have worked hard for what they have got and they are surrounded by friends and family that are very supportive and adore them. There is two children with them. I feel as though one is a step child who does tend to play one off against the other but they are strong in their resolve and don't allow it to affect their relationship. Within this relationship there is a building up of emotional problems, they haven't got to the point where there is an issue within the relationship but the signs are there. It is time for this couple to sit down and resolve any issues that is being held back. It would be beneficial in the long term if they choose to do this. I see that there is questions cropping up regarding a job situation, word is going around that redundancies are going to start happening if things don't improve. This could also be said of the relationship in the sense that a situation is coming up between June to September where a decision is necessary within that relationship. It is going to take some work to hold it together because, generally the relationship is becoming hard work. By November the issues will have been resolved either way."
Here we have a family that have worked hard for what they have got and they are surrounded by friends and family that are very supportive and adore them. There is two children with them. I feel as though one is a step child who does tend to play one off against the other but they are strong in their resolve and don't allow it to affect their relationship. Within this relationship there is a building up of emotional problems, they haven't got to the point where there is an issue within the relationship but the signs are there. It is time for this couple to sit down and resolve any issues that is being held back. It would be beneficial in the long term if they choose to do this. I see that there is questions cropping up regarding a job situation, word is going around that redundancies are going to start happening if things don't improve. This could also be said of the relationship in the sense that a situation is coming up between June to September where a decision is necessary within that relationship. It is going to take some work to hold it together because, generally the relationship is becoming hard work. By November the issues will have been resolved either way."
READING C
"Sitter C - card 1) 2 of cauldrons. Card 2)
Knight of Rods.
These cards show, a once solid relationship that has started to show cracks and weaknesses within it. So it is a very good possibility that this couple haven't been married long, less than two years. It was a relationship that was decided on a whim. The gentleman in the relationship was someone who is was very angry and jealous. The relationship was very much a give and take one where both parties considered each other; but something happened along the way that caused it to become very self centred. I am strongly inclined to believe it was an affair of some kind on the part of the woman. Maybe she started putting other people before her partner which inevitably led to the frustration "coming out." I have three dates October 17th. July 23rd and September 19 (look these up. they have some significance). I also see that the female is the controller in the relationship and feels as though she rules her partner, not to the point of not letting him do anything; but limiting"
These cards show, a once solid relationship that has started to show cracks and weaknesses within it. So it is a very good possibility that this couple haven't been married long, less than two years. It was a relationship that was decided on a whim. The gentleman in the relationship was someone who is was very angry and jealous. The relationship was very much a give and take one where both parties considered each other; but something happened along the way that caused it to become very self centred. I am strongly inclined to believe it was an affair of some kind on the part of the woman. Maybe she started putting other people before her partner which inevitably led to the frustration "coming out." I have three dates October 17th. July 23rd and September 19 (look these up. they have some significance). I also see that the female is the controller in the relationship and feels as though she rules her partner, not to the point of not letting him do anything; but limiting"
READING D
"Sitter D - Card 1)7 of Rods. Card 2) The Wise One.
These cards show a man who is very insecure in his life/relationship. He finds it very difficult to get emotionally involved at most levels and has a tendency to push people who care, away. No sooner does he feel as though he is getting somewhere then something happens that knocks him back. "Three steps forward two steps back." He seems secure in his insecurities and has learnt to live with them. In other aspects of his life he is very confident in his abilities, When it comes down to emotional issues he is very much alone. I can also see that someone who draws close to him has a tendency to chip away at his confidence. More often than not his father who seems to always be picking faults with him. He feels second best within the family hierarchy and sometimes the comparisons get too much for him and off he goes into himself, barriers go up and no one can get close at this point; not even his partner. On a positive he does tend to see things through rose-tinted glasses sometimes and will always find his way out of a difficult situation. March 23 has some significance in this persons life. Also April is a very significant month too. November, December is a very difficult time for this person nothing to do with Christmas, more a very sad memory that even today still causes upset"
These cards show a man who is very insecure in his life/relationship. He finds it very difficult to get emotionally involved at most levels and has a tendency to push people who care, away. No sooner does he feel as though he is getting somewhere then something happens that knocks him back. "Three steps forward two steps back." He seems secure in his insecurities and has learnt to live with them. In other aspects of his life he is very confident in his abilities, When it comes down to emotional issues he is very much alone. I can also see that someone who draws close to him has a tendency to chip away at his confidence. More often than not his father who seems to always be picking faults with him. He feels second best within the family hierarchy and sometimes the comparisons get too much for him and off he goes into himself, barriers go up and no one can get close at this point; not even his partner. On a positive he does tend to see things through rose-tinted glasses sometimes and will always find his way out of a difficult situation. March 23 has some significance in this persons life. Also April is a very significant month too. November, December is a very difficult time for this person nothing to do with Christmas, more a very sad memory that even today still causes upset"
READING E
"Sitter E - Card 1) Six of swords. Card 2) The Fool.
Caution plays an important part in this persons life. They tend to take their time over decisions and never act on impulse. On an emotional level they tend to be very reckless when it comes to love. This person is always treading very careful around their partner because they know that if the wrong word is said then the emotional fallout can be so destructive. It might be that this persons partner is a very jealous individual. This is why I see a lot of caution around this person. I also see that the person is at a point in their life where they are seriously contemplating leaving the relationship and looking for refuge as far away from their jealous partner as possible. Even to the point of moving to another part of the country or the world. By September this person will be in a position where they can follow a dream they have had for a few years now but due to the circumstances within the relationship it has been kept from them. I also see a brighter future for them too by the end of this year. in November they will be faced with a decision, at a crossroads so to speak. They are faced with several options which all lead to the same goal, some decisions will be easier than others other decisions may be a little difficult emotionally for them but they will get there in the end. Be watchful of the month of mid August, I see a minor accident occurring, nothing serious or fatal but the alarm bells will ring. So a little caution is called for at this time"
"Sitter E - Card 1) Six of swords. Card 2) The Fool.
Caution plays an important part in this persons life. They tend to take their time over decisions and never act on impulse. On an emotional level they tend to be very reckless when it comes to love. This person is always treading very careful around their partner because they know that if the wrong word is said then the emotional fallout can be so destructive. It might be that this persons partner is a very jealous individual. This is why I see a lot of caution around this person. I also see that the person is at a point in their life where they are seriously contemplating leaving the relationship and looking for refuge as far away from their jealous partner as possible. Even to the point of moving to another part of the country or the world. By September this person will be in a position where they can follow a dream they have had for a few years now but due to the circumstances within the relationship it has been kept from them. I also see a brighter future for them too by the end of this year. in November they will be faced with a decision, at a crossroads so to speak. They are faced with several options which all lead to the same goal, some decisions will be easier than others other decisions may be a little difficult emotionally for them but they will get there in the end. Be watchful of the month of mid August, I see a minor accident occurring, nothing serious or fatal but the alarm bells will ring. So a little caution is called for at this time"
READINGS FOR GROUP Y (F-G)
READING F.
"Sitter F - Card 1) Queen of pentacles. Card 2) Nine of rods.
This is a very
materialistic lady. A very deep thinker who has reached a point in her life
where she is seriously thinking of ending a relationship because it has become
very stagnant and boring. She has so much to give to the right person but is
really struggling in the relationship she has found herself in at this time.
There is also a lot of confusion with this lady and at times she doesn't feel
as though she knows what she wants in life. She is either very selfish and
wealthy or very generous and poor. This lady fears she is going to be left on
the shelf emotionally and that is why she cannot decide whether or not to end
this relationship or try and work it out. She is a very down to Earth person
and will call a spade a spade. When it comes to love and relationships however,
she finds it difficult to say something when something is wrong within the
relationship. There is a situation coming up very soon, within 1 month, where
she will need to exercise a little bit of caution when it comes to a male
workmate. I see that she may find herself getting involved in something she had
nothing to do with. She needs to be very careful what she says to someone with
regards to their love life because I see the consequences being detrimental to
this lady. Basically she needs to think about what she is saying or needs to
say before she says it. I also see a period of time, about 3 to 4 months
duration where she is going to be on her own and feeling very vulnerable,
emotionally. The lady in question will come out the other side so it is
important that she sticks with it and rides out the storm."
READING G
"Sitter G - Card 1) King of rods. Card 2) Page of swords.
The Gentleman in question here is someone who is very moody and can fly off the handle sometimes. He is also a very determined gentleman who knows what he wants and goes for it no matter what. He doesn't fear failure and is very very headstrong. He can also be a bit of a dreamer who can easily get lost in his imagination. He is the guy who says what he thinks in very difficult situations. There is elements of anger within his relationship. He also has a tendency to not show his feelings within a relationship which more often than not is misinterpreted as someone who finds it hard to love his partner. He is a very selfish man who thinks of no one but himself. The relationship is all take take take and he puts nothing back into it. It is indirectly affecting his family. He is in a relationship where he is more of a destructive force than he cares to think. His partner is at the end of their tether with him and is seriously considering leaving him. In a 2 to 4 weeks this gentleman will receive some positive news about his future, possibly a career move or a legal matter. He really needs to re evaluate his life if he hopes to retrieve this relationship which is coming to an end sooner rather than later. If he doesn't do something about it he will definitely be left on his own and unable to make any future commitments."
"Sitter G - Card 1) King of rods. Card 2) Page of swords.
The Gentleman in question here is someone who is very moody and can fly off the handle sometimes. He is also a very determined gentleman who knows what he wants and goes for it no matter what. He doesn't fear failure and is very very headstrong. He can also be a bit of a dreamer who can easily get lost in his imagination. He is the guy who says what he thinks in very difficult situations. There is elements of anger within his relationship. He also has a tendency to not show his feelings within a relationship which more often than not is misinterpreted as someone who finds it hard to love his partner. He is a very selfish man who thinks of no one but himself. The relationship is all take take take and he puts nothing back into it. It is indirectly affecting his family. He is in a relationship where he is more of a destructive force than he cares to think. His partner is at the end of their tether with him and is seriously considering leaving him. In a 2 to 4 weeks this gentleman will receive some positive news about his future, possibly a career move or a legal matter. He really needs to re evaluate his life if he hopes to retrieve this relationship which is coming to an end sooner rather than later. If he doesn't do something about it he will definitely be left on his own and unable to make any future commitments."
READING H
"Sitter H - Card
1)Two of pentacles. Card 2) Page of swords.
The person in
question here is looking for a return to a stability they knew before trouble
came along and disrupted everything, more on a physical level than emotional
one. The person in question likes to push their luck again and again and it is
this pushiness that got them into bother in the first place. They are smug and
conceited and think they are infallible, however pride always comes before a
downfall and I see that this person is going to end up in way more trouble than
they can handle. The cause of the trouble is egotism and pride. They are very
self centred and selfish and think of no one but themselves. This is where this
person will get their comeuppance and they will get hurt not just physically
but emotionally as well. All i get with this spread is conceitedness, pride,
egotism and confidence. I also see a childish like nature with them and a
strong sense of naivety if it is a young female they need to be very watchful
of a man who is going to take advantage of their naivety. If it is a young man
he needs to watch for entrapment.
READING I
"Sitter I - Card 1) Six of pentacles. Card 2) Knight of rods.
Here we have someone
who is generous to a fault and leaves themselves wide open for being taken
advantage of. The person in question would give their last pound to someone who
is more in need than themselves. There is a lot of people around them that
wouldn't think twice about taking their money illicitly. In fact I see that
they may have been ripped off just recently (as in the last month). They are
managing to live comfortably and never want for anything but they need to
restrict their generosity or be a bit more selfish and think of themselves
rather than someone else. This gentleman is very annoyed at someone close to
them probably his partner. There's frustration with this gentleman and he is
holding himself back from being honest. In fact he is about ready to explode
and when he does it is going to be rather "bloody." metaphorically
speaking."
READING J
Sitter J - Card 1)
Eight of cauldrons. Card 2) Justice.
This person is
holding back their emotions from someone because they are listening to other
people, and what they are saying, rather than their partner, and what they have
to say. I also see that their relationship is getting progressively worse and
will end up in divorce if it isn't dealt with as soon as possible. I can also
see that a new avenue is opening for them and this may be their saving grace.
So despite what I have written above, there is some hope for them if they are
prepared to work through the situation and talk about what is troubling them.so
this person has two choices 1 - Carry on ignoring the obvious and continue
listening to other people and bring their marriage to an abrupt and unpleasant
end affecting themselves and their family. 2 - Or sit down and discuss their
problems and it will be beneficial to their relationship and give it a much
needed new lease of life. It all comes down to weighing up the fors and
againsts and work through their issues if they care about each other
RESULTS
Assigning a value for chance alone.
To do this a random number generator was used to generate a
300 series of random sequences of one to five. A volunteer was asked to select
the first number of that series. These 300 runs were then divided into 60
groups of five tests to better represent the choice facing the subjects. I then
took the mean of these results and took it to be my value for random chance.
In this case for a selection of five by chance alone sample
mean (x):
Therefore
it was calculated the mean score for a correct selection from five choices by
chance alone to be 1/5. This means that in order to provide evidence for the
hypothesis, sitters would have to select their reading from a group of five
with a frequency higher than 1/5.
GROUP X
As you can see from table 3, above no sitters
in this group chose the correct reading. This is a result that conforms to
slightly worse than chance, by which we could reasonably expect at least one
match. In this case we may consider this strong evidence against the alternative
hypothesis and in favour of the null hypothesis.
GROUP Y
You will also see from table 4, no sitters in
the group successfully chose the reading intended for them. The only possible
source of error here being one sitter refused to select a reading as she felt
none of them matched her circumstances. We can hardly consider this a hit
unfortunately.
Again we can consider this strong evidence
against the alternative hypothesis, and in favour of the null hypothesis.
Conclusion.
The intention of the experimenter was to
examine the final results in comparison to the result for chance alone using a
two sample t-test. This would seem unnecessary as the results of the respective
tests were so closely in line with hypothesised mean value for chance alone.
From these results it is safe to conclude
that out subject did not display supernatural abilities on this occasion. Once
the opportunity to hot/cold read was limited, subjects could not successfully
identify their reading. Of course we must be wary of over extrapolating this
result by stating this is evidence that such abilities do exist. All we can firmly
conclude is we saw no evidence of them here.
