Monday, 6 April 2015

Testing Accuracy of Readings Given By An Experienced Tarot Card Reader.

                                                     
Abstract.
The aim of this test is to ascertain whether psychic Barry Phillips has the ability to provide readings which can be identified by anonymous “sitters” as a description of their personality or life. Barry has decided that to provide these readings he will utilise the tarot cards. The testing method used to assess this needed to be such that the usual proposed rational methods of psychic’s producing readings that sitters find accurate, such as cold and hot reading are minimised as much as possible. The test was to be conducted solely via social media.

Hypothesis to Be Tested.

Alternative hypothesis: H1: Subject has abilities which enable him to provide accurate descriptions of sitter’s personality and personal circumstances. This ability can function through mere selection of tarot cards without any other interaction with a sitter. Sitters will therefore select their reading from a choice of five with a frequency greater than chance alone.
Null hypothesis: H0: Subject’s ability to provide accurate readings is related to well understood methods which are naturalistic in origin, such as cold and hot reading. This would be evidenced by sitters selecting readings with an accuracy roughly equivalent to chance alone.

Method
The aim of the test was to minimise the methods used by psychics to provide readings that seem accurate to sitters. One of the foremost considerations in this was to minimise the opportunity for the psychic to “cold read” the sitter.  This was achieved by ensuring that Barry had no contact with the cohorts, volunteers were selected via private message which Barry was not privy to. Cohorts were instructed not to inform any other parties of their participation in the test. The subject was provided with no personal details of the cohorts.
To restrict their opportunity to “hot read” sitters an early request to provide sitters names and dates of birth was rejected. The only information that was knowingly passed to the subject by the experimenters was the sitter’s card selections.
As a measure against the opportunity for collusion between psychic and sitter, the ten sitters were selected from a larger group of fifty cohorts. Sitters and cohorts alike were not informed if they had progressed past the initial stage of the test. To this end all cohorts chose cards and received the readings relevant to the sub-groups to which they were assigned. This was not a fool proof measure. A level of collusion was still possible.
To prevent cohorts with knowledge or experience with tarot cards making educated guesses as to which card they had selected, each card was assigned a random number and was to be selected via this number. Barry was instructed not to make any mention of the numbers selected in readings, thus preventing sitters from being easily able to select their read based on this.
Barry forwarded two pictures of the cards to be used. One face up, which was not shared to cohorts.


 













Figure 1 Cards as sent by Barry Phillips face up.

And a photo of the cards face down. Unfortunately this was numbered in advance by Barry. It was therefore necessary to obscure these numbers before a new random number was assigned to each card. This was done by using an online random number generator at Random.org.
















Figure 2: Cards as sent By Barry Phillips face down


Table 1: Key to card numbers and newly assigned random numbers.
Original Number
random number
Original Number
random number
Original Number
random number
Original Number
random number
1
70
22
34
43
40
64
61
2
17
23
55
44
16
65
54
3
69
24
7
45
60
66
38
4
36
25
63
46
6
67
71
5
58
26
26
47
19
68
57
6
10
27
25
48
21
69
47
7
44
28
28
49
32
70
24
8
12
29
22
50
9
71
49
9
51
30
33
51
59
72
62
10
75
31
31
52
53
73
13
11
14
32
64
53
78
74
52
12
18
33
74
54
46
75
65
13
3
34
42
55
73
76
5
14
37
35
50
56
11
77
23
15
29
36
15
57
67
78
77
16
27
37
45
58
2


17
76
38
1
59
39


18
72
39
68
60
35


19
20
40
43
61
48


20
8
41
66
62
41


21
56
42
4
63
30





Figure 3: Random numbers assigned to tarot cards: This was the version sent to cohorts.

This image was then circulated to all 50 cohorts. They were instructed to select two cards from the range which was then to be passed back to the experimenters. Cohorts were instructed not to inform any third party of their selection.


What follows is a table of all the cohorts taking part in the test and their responses.




Assigned number
Name
sex
Number within sub-group
sitter
Cards selected

Reading assigned
Reading selected
Match
1
Andy Henson
1
1Y
-
53 & 47
-
I
-
2
Noah Leigh
1
19Y
-
67 & 8
-
G
-
3
Helen Dashwood
2
2Y
F
-
-
-
-
4
Cath Carr
2
8X
-
73 & 57
-
A
-
5
Claire Rooney
2
12Y
H
4 & 63
H
F
0
6
Mellanie R. Caldwell
2
15X
-
22 & 11
-
E
-
7
Jay Oliver
1
16X
-
4 & 21
-
I
-
8
Bel C. Ache
2
18Y
G
45 & 63
G
I
0
9
Tracey Harvey
2
16Y
-
16 & 23
-
F
-
10
Scott Sanders
1
18X
-
9 & 16
-
C
-
11
Claire Evans
2
22X
-
5 & 29
-
B
-
12
Alex Mellor
1
19X
-
25 & 32
-
E
-
13
Traycie Kennedy
2
4X
-
28 & 11
-
A
-
14
Tina Woodcock
2
7Y
-
33 & 10
-
F
-
15
Efsun K. Saunders
2
x
-
47 & 77
-
J
-
16
Trina Wood
2
10X
-
-
-
-
-
17
Tracey Malley
2
7X
-
6 & 7
-
D
-
18
Angela W. Brignall
2
13Y
-
44 & 72
-
F
-
19
Juliet Byrne
2
6X
-
67 & 32
-
A
-
20
Kathy Stoops
2
17Y
I
25 & 1
I
F
0
21
Caroline Cornwall
2
21Y
J
28 & 43
J
F
0
22
Kenny Biddle
1
20Y
-
73 & 69
-
G

23
Mika Lewis
2
3X
E*
13 & 34
E
A
0
24
Ant L. Seletti
1
21X
-
25 & 60
-
-
-
25
Karen Rae
2
9Y
-
31 & 72
-
F
-
26
Charlie Louise
2
22Y
-
23 & 75
-
-
-
27
Herb Moore
1
8Y
-
15 & 48
-
H
-
28
Jennifer Donohue
2
11X
-
18 & 23
-
E
-
29
Dan Towey
1
9X
B
58 & 62
B
D
0
30
David Burns Keane
1
25Y
F*
6 & 44
F
G
0
31
Mel Terry
2
23Y
-
14 & 23
-
I
-
32
Andrew J.Wood
1
10Y
-
58 & 62
-
I
-
33
Jeffery Allen Burton
1
25X
C
76 & 1
C
A
0
34
Susan Knavel
2
6Y
-
-
-
F
-
35
Sam Campbell
2
24X
-
-
-
-
-
36
Cherie Warzynski
2
5Y
-
-
-
I
-
37
Carolyn Dougherty
2
1X
A
78 & 18
A
D
0
38
Rebecca Bassett
2
24Y
-
15 & 68
-
I
-
39
Sally Roediger
2
17X
-
1 & 7
-
D
-
40
Katrina Rhoades
2
14Y
-
15 & 69
-
I
-
41
Tim Vickers
1
2X
D
9 & 3
D
B
0
42
Glyn Worthington
1
14X
-
65 & 7
-
B
-
43
Evelyn Rake
2
20X
-
23 & 34
-
E
-
44
Rachel Carney
2
23X
-
49 & 72
-
-
-
45
Jane Duffy
2
5X
-
17 & 1
-
D
-
46
Becky Longfellow.
2
11Y
-
4 & 22
-
-
-
47
Caryn Harris
2
15Y
-
5 & 32
-
-
-
48
Paula Taylor
2
13X
E
-
-
-
-
49
Alina Alc
2
12X
-
2 & 25
-
E
-
50
Anna Hill
2
4Y
-
16 & 19
-
I
-









*Due to a no response in both group X and Y it was necessary to pick two replacement sitters. This was done by simply selecting the sixth number from the respective random number sequences. 
Table 2 Key.
Assigned number: Given on the basis of order upon which request to partake was received.
Sex: Male (1) female (2) used only for the purpose of analysis of whether a particular gender gravitated to a particular reading.
Number within sub-group: Randomly assigned number followed by letter indicates position within one of two sub-groups (x and Y).
Sitter: Letter indicates cohort was selected to be sitter. Letter indicating position at which number was selected by random number generator (i.e. if 43 was drawn first, cohort 43 becomes sitter A)
Match: success (1) Failure (0)

Cohorts were then sorted into two groups, using a sequence generated by aforementioned random number generator. First 25 cohorts became group X, with a new number based on the order their initial number was selected. The second 25 group Y.  The cohorts received back only the readings for the five selected “sitters” in their group. 
For example cohort 1X received only readings A, B, C, D and E. 


From the 25 cohorts in each group five were selected at random to become “sitters”. These sitter’s card selections were forwarded to Barry to receive readings.

These sitters were assigned a letter:

A, B, C, D and E being the sitters from group X, sitters from group Y being assigned F, G, H, I and J

Selecting sitters from group X

Therefore the sitters selected are 1X, 9X, 25X, 2X and 13X

Table 3: Sitters for Group X

Sitter
Name
Cards selected
Reading chosen
A
Carolyn Dougherty
78 & 18
D          No match
B
Dan Towey
58 & 62
D        No match
C
Jeffery Allen Burton
76 & 1
A         No  match
D
Tim Vickers
9 & 3
B         No match
E
Paula Taylor
No response
-           
E replacement
Mika Lewis
13 & 34
A         No Match

Selecting sitters from group Y.

Therefore the selected sitters are 2Y, 18Y, 12Y, 20Y and 21Y.

 Table 4: Sitters for Group Y

Sitter
Name
Cards selected
Reading chosen
F
Helen Dashwood
No response
-
F replacement.
David Burns Keane
6 & 44
G         No Match
G
Bel C. Ache
45 & 63
I           No Match
H
Claire Rooney
4 & 63
F        (No Match)
I
Kathy Stoops
25 & 1
F         No Match
J
Caroline Cornwall
28 & 43
F         No Match

The reasoning for splitting the cohorts into two subgroups was the concern that many of the cohorts may have found digesting and selecting from ten readings somewhat daunting. A non-response a stage 2 would have been disastrous to the test, so any measure that reduced this risk was worthwhile. Also this method provides to separate tests to be considered. The measure also may collusion somewhat more difficult.

As you will see the above tables record two “no responses” these were fortunately at stage 1, therefore a replacement sitter could be selected to go forward to the next stage based simply upon the next number in the random number sequence generated for each sub-group.

READINGS FOR GROUP X (A-E)

READING A.
"Sitter A - card 1) 5 of pentacles. Card 2) 7 of swords.

We have a gentleman who feels as though he is letting his family down financially. He is also working hard at keeping his family together. He is inwardly hurting emotionally but his partner can't seem to see it and if she can she chooses not to believe it. This gentleman cannot carry this financial and emotional burden on his own, he needs to talk to someone about it but he cannot show his weakness. He is very traditional in his beliefs and likes to think he could run a home and family on what he earned now everything has gone pear shaped and now he is working himself up to a nervous breakdown which can be avoided if he could bring himself to seek help. What has brought this about is a redundancy or sudden loss of his job due to an illness or injury. He also feels like his whole life is slipping away from him and he has no control over it. This leads to sudden outbursts. This also compounds his emotional frame of mind. He is also close to losing his partner because of this build up of instability in his life. However by July or August time, I feel as though things will turn around for him if he can just ride out this storm. The family need to cut back on treats and luxuries because overall the gentleman is living beyond his means."

READING B

"Sitter B - card 1) 10 of cauldrons. Card 2) 7 of pentacles

Here we have a family that have worked hard for what they have got and they are surrounded by friends and family that are very supportive and adore them. There is two children with them. I feel as though one is a step child who does tend to play one off against the other but they are strong in their resolve and don't allow it to affect their relationship. Within this relationship there is a building up of emotional problems, they haven't got to the point where there is an issue within the relationship but the signs are there. It is time for this couple to sit down and resolve any issues that is being held back. It would be beneficial in the long term if they choose to do this. I see that there is questions cropping up regarding a job situation, word is going around that redundancies are going to start happening if things don't improve. This could also be said of the relationship in the sense that a situation is coming up between June to September where a decision is necessary within that relationship. It is going to take some work to hold it together because, generally the relationship is becoming hard work. By November the issues will have been resolved either way."

READING C

"Sitter C - card 1) 2 of cauldrons. Card 2) Knight of Rods.

These cards show, a once solid relationship that has started to show cracks and weaknesses within it. So it is a very good possibility that this couple haven't been married long, less than two years. It was a relationship that was decided on a whim. The gentleman in the relationship was someone who is was very angry and jealous. The relationship was very much a give and take one where both parties considered each other; but something happened along the way that caused it to become very self centred. I am strongly inclined to believe it was an affair of some kind on the part of the woman. Maybe she started putting other people before her partner which inevitably led to the frustration "coming out." I have three dates October 17th. July 23rd and September 19 (look these up. they have some significance). I also see that the female is the controller in the relationship and feels as though she rules her partner, not to the point of not letting him do anything; but limiting"

READING D

"Sitter D - Card 1)7 of Rods. Card 2) The Wise One.
These cards show a man who is very insecure in his life/relationship. He finds it very difficult to get emotionally involved at most levels and has a tendency to push people who care, away. No sooner does he feel as though he is getting somewhere then something happens that knocks him back. "Three steps forward two steps back." He seems secure in his insecurities and has learnt to live with them. In other aspects of his life he is very confident in his abilities, When it comes down to emotional issues he is very much alone. I can also see that someone who draws close to him has a tendency to chip away at his confidence. More often than not his father who seems to always be picking faults with him. He feels second best within the family hierarchy and sometimes the comparisons get too much for him and off he goes into himself, barriers go up and no one can get close at this point; not even his partner. On a positive he does tend to see things through rose-tinted glasses sometimes and will always find his way out of a difficult situation. March 23 has some significance in this persons life. Also April is a very significant month too. November, December is a very difficult time for this person nothing to do with Christmas, more a very sad memory that even today still causes upset"

READING E

"Sitter E - Card 1) Six of swords. Card 2) The Fool.
Caution plays an important part in this persons life. They tend to take their time over decisions and never act on impulse. On an emotional level they tend to be very reckless when it comes to love. This person is always treading very careful around their partner because they know that if the wrong word is said then the emotional fallout can be so destructive. It might be that this persons partner is a very jealous individual. This is why I see a lot of caution around this person. I also see that the person is at a point in their life where they are seriously contemplating leaving the relationship and looking for refuge as far away from their jealous partner as possible. Even to the point of moving to another part of the country or the world. By September this person will be in a position where they can follow a dream they have had for a few years now but due to the circumstances within the relationship it has been kept from them. I also see a brighter future for them too by the end of this year. in November they will be faced with a decision, at a crossroads so to speak. They are faced with several options which all lead to the same goal, some decisions will be easier than others other decisions may be a little difficult emotionally for them but they will get there in the end. Be watchful of the month of mid August, I see a minor accident occurring, nothing serious or fatal but the alarm bells will ring. So a little caution is called for at this time"

READINGS FOR GROUP Y (F-G)

READING F. 

 "Sitter F - Card 1) Queen of pentacles. Card 2) Nine of rods.
This is a very materialistic lady. A very deep thinker who has reached a point in her life where she is seriously thinking of ending a relationship because it has become very stagnant and boring. She has so much to give to the right person but is really struggling in the relationship she has found herself in at this time. There is also a lot of confusion with this lady and at times she doesn't feel as though she knows what she wants in life. She is either very selfish and wealthy or very generous and poor. This lady fears she is going to be left on the shelf emotionally and that is why she cannot decide whether or not to end this relationship or try and work it out. She is a very down to Earth person and will call a spade a spade. When it comes to love and relationships however, she finds it difficult to say something when something is wrong within the relationship. There is a situation coming up very soon, within 1 month, where she will need to exercise a little bit of caution when it comes to a male workmate. I see that she may find herself getting involved in something she had nothing to do with. She needs to be very careful what she says to someone with regards to their love life because I see the consequences being detrimental to this lady. Basically she needs to think about what she is saying or needs to say before she says it. I also see a period of time, about 3 to 4 months duration where she is going to be on her own and feeling very vulnerable, emotionally. The lady in question will come out the other side so it is important that she sticks with it and rides out the storm."

READING G
"Sitter G - Card 1) King of rods. Card 2) Page of swords.
The Gentleman in question here is someone who is very moody and can fly off the handle sometimes. He is also a very determined gentleman who knows what he wants and goes for it no matter what. He doesn't fear failure and is very very headstrong. He can also be a bit of a dreamer who can easily get lost in his imagination. He is the guy who says what he thinks in very difficult situations. There is elements of anger within his relationship. He also has a tendency to not show his feelings within a relationship which more often than not is misinterpreted as someone who finds it hard to love his partner. He is a very selfish man who thinks of no one but himself. The relationship is all take take take and he puts nothing back into it. It is indirectly affecting his family. He is in a relationship where he is more of a destructive force than he cares to think. His partner is at the end of their tether with him and is seriously considering leaving him. In a 2 to 4 weeks this gentleman will receive some positive news about his future, possibly a career move or a legal matter. He really needs to re evaluate his life if he hopes to retrieve this relationship which is coming to an end sooner rather than later. If he doesn't do something about it he will definitely be left on his own and unable to make any future commitments."


READING H
"Sitter H - Card 1)Two of pentacles. Card 2) Page of swords. 
The person in question here is looking for a return to a stability they knew before trouble came along and disrupted everything, more on a physical level than emotional one. The person in question likes to push their luck again and again and it is this pushiness that got them into bother in the first place. They are smug and conceited and think they are infallible, however pride always comes before a downfall and I see that this person is going to end up in way more trouble than they can handle. The cause of the trouble is egotism and pride. They are very self centred and selfish and think of no one but themselves. This is where this person will get their comeuppance and they will get hurt not just physically but emotionally as well. All i get with this spread is conceitedness, pride, egotism and confidence. I also see a childish like nature with them and a strong sense of naivety if it is a young female they need to be very watchful of a man who is going to take advantage of their naivety. If it is a young man he needs to watch for entrapment.

READING I

 "Sitter I - Card 1) Six of pentacles. Card 2) Knight of rods.
 Here we have someone who is generous to a fault and leaves themselves wide open for being taken advantage of. The person in question would give their last pound to someone who is more in need than themselves. There is a lot of people around them that wouldn't think twice about taking their money illicitly. In fact I see that they may have been ripped off just recently (as in the last month). They are managing to live comfortably and never want for anything but they need to restrict their generosity or be a bit more selfish and think of themselves rather than someone else. This gentleman is very annoyed at someone close to them probably his partner. There's frustration with this gentleman and he is holding himself back from being honest. In fact he is about ready to explode and when he does it is going to be rather "bloody." metaphorically speaking."

 READING J
Sitter J - Card 1) Eight of cauldrons. Card 2) Justice. 
This person is holding back their emotions from someone because they are listening to other people, and what they are saying, rather than their partner, and what they have to say. I also see that their relationship is getting progressively worse and will end up in divorce if it isn't dealt with as soon as possible. I can also see that a new avenue is opening for them and this may be their saving grace. So despite what I have written above, there is some hope for them if they are prepared to work through the situation and talk about what is troubling them.so this person has two choices 1 - Carry on ignoring the obvious and continue listening to other people and bring their marriage to an abrupt and unpleasant end affecting themselves and their family. 2 - Or sit down and discuss their problems and it will be beneficial to their relationship and give it a much needed new lease of life. It all comes down to weighing up the fors and againsts and work through their issues if they care about each other

RESULTS

Assigning a value for chance alone.

To do this a random number generator was used to generate a 300 series of random sequences of one to five. A volunteer was asked to select the first number of that series. These 300 runs were then divided into 60 groups of five tests to better represent the choice facing the subjects. I then took the mean of these results and took it to be my value for random chance.
In this case for a selection of five by chance alone sample mean (x):

Therefore it was calculated the mean score for a correct selection from five choices by chance alone to be 1/5. This means that in order to provide evidence for the hypothesis, sitters would have to select their reading from a group of five with a frequency higher than 1/5.

GROUP X
As you can see from table 3, above no sitters in this group chose the correct reading. This is a result that conforms to slightly worse than chance, by which we could reasonably expect at least one match. In this case we may consider this strong evidence against the alternative hypothesis and in favour of the null hypothesis.
GROUP Y
You will also see from table 4, no sitters in the group successfully chose the reading intended for them. The only possible source of error here being one sitter refused to select a reading as she felt none of them matched her circumstances. We can hardly consider this a hit unfortunately.
Again we can consider this strong evidence against the alternative hypothesis, and in favour of the null hypothesis.
Conclusion.
The intention of the experimenter was to examine the final results in comparison to the result for chance alone using a two sample t-test. This would seem unnecessary as the results of the respective tests were so closely in line with hypothesised mean value for chance alone.
From these results it is safe to conclude that out subject did not display supernatural abilities on this occasion. Once the opportunity to hot/cold read was limited, subjects could not successfully identify their reading. Of course we must be wary of over extrapolating this result by stating this is evidence that such abilities do exist. All we can firmly conclude is we saw no evidence of them here.